Nowmal › Arkansas › Helena-West Helena
The week’s forecast, measured against two yardsticks: the “normal” your weather app still uses — a 1991–2020 average centered on 2005 — and the climate-adjusted normal, which here runs +0.3°F warmer. Same NOAA data. No pretending.
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1991 called. It wants its climate baseline back.
| Month | Normal high | Adjusted high | Normal low | Adjusted low | Gap (high) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 50.1° | 50.1° | 33.3° | 34.2° | +0.0° |
| February | 54.9° | 55.7° | 36.9° | 38.3° | +0.8° |
| March | 63.7° | 64.6° | 43.8° | 44.9° | +0.9° |
| April | 73.1° | 73.5° | 52.4° | 52.8° | +0.4° |
| May | 81.5° | 81.7° | 61.5° | 62.5° | +0.2° |
| June | 88.6° | 88.6° | 69.4° | 70.4° | +-0.0° |
| July | 91.0° | 90.6° | 72.1° | 73.0° | +-0.4° |
| August | 90.7° | 90.5° | 70.4° | 71.0° | +-0.2° |
| September | 85.8° | 86.0° | 63.6° | 64.3° | +0.3° |
| October | 75.3° | 75.5° | 52.1° | 53.2° | +0.2° |
| November | 62.4° | 62.9° | 42.6° | 44.3° | +0.4° |
| December | 52.9° | 53.9° | 35.9° | 37.5° | +0.9° |
The “normal” temperature in every weather app is a 30-year average (1991–2020) — a number centered on mid-2005, two decades out of date in a warming climate. The Climate-Adjusted Normal takes NOAA’s official normal and advances it to the present using this county’s own measured warming trend.
It isn’t a forecast — it’s a more honest yardstick for what “normal” means now. Read why Nowmal exists →
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The forecast is the National Weather Service’s, for Helena-West Helena itself. Normals and the warming trend are computed at county level (Phillips County) from NOAA’s homogenized climate record, because climate trends vary smoothly — nearby towns warm at statistically indistinguishable rates. Method details on the methodology page.
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